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Altos Research National Report, September 2011 Print
Written by Other (See Below)   
Thursday, 08 September 2011 11:28

“It would be so nice if something would make sense for a change.” –Alice, Alice in Wonderland

Ahhh…but it makes sense when you look at the data. Volatility is the norm and list prices lead transaction prices by several months. Those things are constant.

Since a peak in early July, we’ve seen week over week cooling of the housing market. The spring price and inventory bumps are over and we’re settling in for a long, cold winter.

 
Altos Research August 2011 Mid-Cities Report Print
Written by Bill Berliner   
Thursday, 18 August 2011 14:24

This is the first time we have experienced the current combination of low interest rates, high unemployment, and a glut of inventory hiding in the shadow. The housing market in the United States is in a constant state of flux. Volatility is the norm and the rules of yesterday’s market no longer apply.

Last Updated on Thursday, 18 August 2011 14:26
 
The Economic “Soft Patch” at the End of QE2 How Will It Impact Corporate Treasury Investors? Print
Written by Capital Advisors Group   
Wednesday, 13 July 2011 11:57

How long does it take for “green shoots” to grow into a “soft patch”? For the U.S. economy, it has taken a little more than two years.

In his famous 60 Minutes interview on March 15, 2009, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke popularized the phrase “green shoots” to describe the growing confidence in the post-crisis U.S. economy1. As the Fed’s second round of asset purchases of $600 billion (dubbed QE2) came to an end last week, “soft patch” became the new phrase du jour, describing the recent slowdown in economic activities. Even the June 22nd Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement acknowledges that the recovery is progressing “more slowly than the Committee had expected.” For investors, this likely means that the Fed will be on hold longer than previously anticipated and interest rates may remain low for the foreseeable future.

 
June Economic Recap, June 2011 Print
Written by Bill Berliner   
Wednesday, 13 July 2011 07:24

Economic data released in June suggest the U.S. economic recovery is losing steam. While manufacturing, the workhorse of the recovery, continues to expand, the pace of expansion has slowed significantly. Meanwhile, consumer spending remains soft and government spending is contracting, although business investment remains steady. Headline inflation is elevated, due in large part to energy and food prices, while core inflation levels remain relatively benign. The labor market has weakened further, despite the fact that the private sector has been increasing payrolls steadily. Initial jobless claims have remained above 400,000 for eleven consecutive weeks, suggesting a greater amount of employee churn rather than robust job growth.

 
Altos Research Real-Time Housing Report, July 2011 Print
Written by Bill Berliner   
Wednesday, 13 July 2011 07:22

Steady as she goes… Prices and inventory are steadily trending upward in the composite markets this month. The one-month numbers are reporting modest increases in list prices (1.37%) and inventory (0.35%). The three-month numbers are still trending upward as well, with list prices up 2.31% and inventory up 3.52%.

 
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