In his semi-annual testimony to Congress, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke reiterated the pledge to keep interest rates “exceptionally low for an extended period” as the “nascent economic recovery” needs continued support.  However, this outlook has not kept the Fed from normalizing its lending activities.  Several of the lending and liquidity facilities enacted in late 2008 were shut down at the beginning of February and on February 18th they raised the discount rate, where banks can borrow directly from the Fed on an emergency basis, to 0.75%.  The Fed was quick to point out that this was not a tightening of monetary policy, rather it should be seen as a normalization of policy; a preamble to the actual tightening cycle.  Overall, economic data released in February were mixed as housing activity softened, the labor market saw another month of job losses coupled with a decline in the unemployment rate, while retail sales climbed more than economists’ expected.  Also on the positive side, manufacturing continued to expand.

The US economy expanded at the fastest pace in over six years during the fourth quarter, gaining 5.7% on an annualized pace. Even with this large jump, the economy shrank 2.4% in 2009, which is the worst yearly performance since 1946. With 2009 behind us, Americans are hopeful that we can avoid a double dip recession in 2010 and optimistic that we will see sustained economic growth, especially in the housing and labor markets.  The FOMC, which met on January 26th and 27th, reiterated their earlier comments that conditions "are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period,” but expressed a cautious optimism regarding the future outlook. Overall, economic data released in January were mixed as the housing market retreated, the labor market saw another month of job losses, albeit at a slowing pace, and retail sales unexpectedly fell. On the bright side, manufacturing continues to expand as a weak dollar keeps the demand for US goods strong.