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Bill Berliner


9/1/10 Print

Treasuries kicked off the new month by selling off sharply.  A sliver of good economic news (an unexpected pop in ISM Manufacturing) caused stocks to soar and pushed yields higher, led by the 30-year bond.  The curve steepened by about 6 basis points, leaving the 2-10 spread at +211.

 
8/31/10 Print

Treasuries took back Friday's losses with a solid gain, kicked off by weak income numbers and bearish comments from overseas officials.  Much of the rally, however, seems to be people positioning themselves for Friday's employment report.  The 10-year yield dropped about 12 basis points, flattening the curve by a good 6-7 basis points on the session.

 
8/25/10 Print

Intermediate and long Treasuries pushed sharply higher on Tuesday, leaving the 2-year yield at a new low and the curve another 10 basis points flatter.  The rally was kicked off by an extremely weak report on Existing Home Sales, which rekindled fears of economic weakness.  The rally in 10s pushed its yield below the 2.50% level for the first time since January 2009.  The rally left MBS in the dust; the entire sector decisively underperformed Treasuries by 6-10 ticks.

 
8/30/10 Print

Treasury prices were sharply lower on Friday, pushing the yield on the 10-year back into the mid-2.60%s area.  The selloff was triggered by a better-than-expected revision to Q2, and was exacerbated by comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke that the Fed is not yet considering aggressive purchases of Treasuries.

 
8/24/10 Print

Treasuries ended modestly higher on Monday in a fairly quiet session.  The 10-year bounced around the 2.60% level, eventually closing right at 2.60%, while the 2-year ended the day a basis point or so lower in yield.  This left the yield curve (2-10s) a basis point or so flatter, while 5s were the best performer on the day.

 
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Bill Berliner is a mortgage and capital markets consultant based in Southern California.  Before starting Berliner Consulting & Research, he was the head of Trade Strategies for Countrywide Securities Corp.  To access the web site of Berliner Consulting & Research, click here.

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